Weekly Updates on International Politics: Civitas One Magazine
- Civitas One Team
- Dec 14
- 6 min read
Vol. 1, Issue 21 — Week of December 14, 2025
I. Presidential Runoff in Chile: Rightward Shift in Latin America
Chile held its presidential runoff on December 14, 2025, in a contest between far-right Republican José Antonio Kast and left-wing Jeannette Jara, with mandatory voting reinstated for the first time since 2012. The runoff emerged after neither candidate secured a majority in the November first round, reflecting deep polarization and public concern over crime, immigration, and economic stability. Opinion polls indicated Kast held a significant lead heading into the vote, suggesting a potential rightward pivot in Chilean governance. Kast’s platform emphasizes tougher immigration enforcement, stricter law enforcement, and market-oriented reforms, while Jara campaigned on social protection and public services. The outcome was anticipated to mark Chile’s most conservative shift since the end of military rule.
Political analysts linked the runoff dynamics to broader trends across Latin America, including voter frustration with incumbent administrations and prioritization of security over redistribution. Compulsory voting could shape engagement and turnout patterns, influencing legitimacy debates regardless of the winner. The electoral outcome had immediate implications for congressional alignments and regional diplomatic posture.
Implications:
Potential ideological reorientation in Chile may impact regional policy cohesion on migration, security, and economic integration.
A shift toward more restrictive domestic policies could alter foreign investor confidence and trade engagement in South America.
Chile’s election outcome may serve as a bellwether for populist and conservative waves influencing other democracies in the region.
II. Iran–Azerbaijan Engagement and Central Asian Diplomacy
On December 8, Iran’s foreign minister met Azerbaijani leadership in Baku to expand bilateral cooperation on trade, infrastructure, and regional economic connectivity, aiming to deepen integration and mitigate U.S. and Israeli influence in the Caucasus. Tehran reaffirmed support for the 3+3 regional security format and discussed enhanced transport links to bolster trade corridors. These engagements seek to bolster Iran’s role in Eurasian economic structures and reduce external vulnerabilities.
In Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan’s bid for a non-permanent UN Security Council seat (2027–28) received unified support from neighboring presidents, emphasizing conflict prevention, sustainable development, and UN reform. This regional coordination reflects a growing push by Central Asian states to shape global multilateral governance.
Implications:
Heightened diplomatic cooperation may advance alternative regional governance frameworks less anchored to Western alliances.
Expanded Iran-Azerbaijan economic links could shift Eurasian transit corridors and trade patterns, with implications for Russia and China.
Kyrgyzstan’s UNSC campaign highlights Central Asian efforts to influence global security agendas, especially on nuclear and development issues.
III. Sudan: Attacks on Peacekeepers and Intensified International Pressure
Sudan’s civil war escalated further during the reporting week as violence increasingly targeted international and humanitarian actors. On December 12, the United Kingdom announced targeted sanctions against four senior Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commanders, citing credible evidence of mass killings, systematic sexual violence, ethnic targeting, and deliberate attacks on civilians. The measures included asset freezes and travel bans and were paired with renewed UK commitments to humanitarian assistance, reflecting a shift toward more explicit accountability mechanisms amid the collapse of political mediation efforts.
The security situation deteriorated sharply on December 13, when a drone strike struck a UN logistics base in Kadugli, South Kordofan, killing at least six Bangladeshi peacekeepers and injuring others. The UN Secretary-General strongly condemned the attack, warning that assaults on peacekeeping personnel may constitute war crimes. Sudan’s armed forces blamed the RSF, which denied responsibility, further inflaming tensions and reinforcing concerns over command discipline and attribution in the conflict.
These developments unfolded alongside continued RSF territorial consolidation, including control over strategic infrastructure and supply routes in western and central Sudan. The expansion of RSF-held territory during the week further restricted humanitarian access, disrupted aid corridors, and accelerated civilian displacement toward South Sudan and Chad, deepening regional humanitarian pressures.
Implications:
Targeted sanctions signal rising international willingness to pursue individual accountability but may have limited deterrent effect without broader enforcement.
Attacks on UN personnel increase the risk of mission drawdowns, reducing civilian protection and aid delivery.
Continued territorial fragmentation heightens the risk of regional spillover and prolonged state collapse.
IV. Red Sea Maritime Security: Renewed Attacks and Naval Responses
Maritime security risks in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait intensified during December 7–14, 2025, following a series of missile and drone attacks on commercial shipping transiting near Yemen. Several vessels reported near misses and damage during the week, prompting shipping companies to reroute traffic around the Cape of Good Hope. The attacks were attributed by U.S. and allied officials to Iran-aligned Houthi forces, who framed the operations as pressure linked to wider regional conflicts.
In response, U.S., European, and regional naval forces operating under existing maritime security frameworks increased patrols and conducted multiple intercepts of incoming drones and missiles. Coalition officials emphasized that freedom of navigation operations would continue, while warning that sustained attacks risk miscalculation and escalation with broader regional consequences. Insurance premiums for Red Sea transits rose during the week, reinforcing the economic impact of the security disruption.
The renewed targeting of commercial shipping highlights the durability of hybrid maritime threats and the difficulty of restoring deterrence without widening conflict. While naval defenses have limited damage so far, the persistence of attacks underscores vulnerabilities in global trade chokepoints and the challenge of protecting civilian maritime traffic amid regional instability.
Implications:
Continued attacks threaten global supply chains by raising costs and prolonging shipping disruptions.
Naval interception reduces immediate risk but does not eliminate escalation potential with regional actors.
Persistent insecurity reinforces the strategic importance of maritime chokepoints in hybrid conflict.
V. Monetary Tightening Signals and the Return of Geopolitical Risk to Global Markets
Global financial markets experienced heightened volatility during December 7–14, 2025 as investors reacted to a convergence of monetary policy shifts and geopolitical uncertainty. The Bank of Japan’s move away from its long-standing ultra-loose monetary stance continued to reverberate through global bond markets, contributing to higher U.S. Treasury yields and renewed pressure on risk-sensitive assets. The shift reinforced expectations that the era of synchronized global monetary accommodation has ended, increasing sensitivity to policy signals from major central banks.
During the same week, central banks in Australia, Canada, and Switzerland delivered policy decisions that emphasized caution about inflation persistence and fiscal sustainability, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde used public remarks to underscore the need for policy credibility amid slowing growth. Together, these signals reinforced market expectations of prolonged restrictive financial conditions into 2026, with particular implications for highly indebted economies and emerging markets facing capital outflows.
Geopolitical developments further amplified market uncertainty. Diplomatic maneuvering around Ukraine, ongoing sanctions enforcement, and maritime security risks in key trade corridors reinforced the perception that geopolitical shocks are no longer exogenous to financial planning. In the United States, domestic political controversy surrounding the seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker and renewed immigration protests added an additional layer of policy unpredictability, contributing to cautious investor sentiment and volatility across energy and transportation sectors.
Implications:
Persistent monetary tightening increases debt-servicing risks for emerging and highly leveraged economies.
Markets are pricing geopolitics as a structural, not episodic, source of volatility.
Policy credibility and coordination will be increasingly central to maintaining financial stability.
Thematic Summary
Theme | Key Development |
Democratic Transitions | Chile’s December 14 presidential runoff signaled a potential rightward political shift with implications for regional governance and investor sentiment. |
Regional Governance | Iran–Azerbaijan engagement and Central Asian coordination around a UNSC bid highlighted efforts to shape non-Western multilateral frameworks. |
Conflict & Humanitarian | UK sanctions and a lethal attack on UN peacekeepers intensified international pressure amid Sudan’s deepening state fragmentation. |
Security Dynamics | Renewed missile and drone attacks on Red Sea shipping underscored persistent hybrid threats to global maritime chokepoints. |
Economic & Strategic Trends | Monetary tightening signals and geopolitical risk reinforced market volatility and elevated concerns over debt sustainability and policy credibility. |
Sources:
Presidential Runoff in Chile: Rightward Shift in Latin America
Reuters. 2025. “Chile votes in presidential race expected to lurch country to the right.” Reuters, December 14. link
Associated Press. 2025. “Chile holds an election that could deliver its most right‑wing president since dictatorship.” AP News, December 14. link
Scotiabank. 2025. “Latam Daily: Chile’s Presidential Election Recap.” Scotiabank Economics, November 17. link
Iran–Azerbaijan Engagement and Central Asian Diplomacy
Sudan: Attacks on Peacekeepers and Intensified International Pressure
Associated Press. 2025. “UN chief says 6 peacekeepers killed in drone strike on a UN facility in Sudan.” AP News, December 13. link
Reuters. 2025. “UK sanctions RSF commanders over links to mass killings in Sudan.” Reuters, December 12. link
UK Government. 2025. “UK sanctions commanders responsible for Sudan atrocities and pledges additional humanitarian support.” Gov.uk, December 12. link
Red Sea Maritime Security: Renewed Attacks and Naval Responses
Monetary Tightening Signals and the Return of Geopolitical Risk to Global Markets
Reuters. 2025. “Global markets rattled as Bank of Japan shift pushes yields higher.” Reuters, December 9. link
Reuters. 2025. “Trump approval rating rises as Republicans back cost‑of‑living efforts.” Reuters, December 9. link
Financial Times. 2025. “CMA CGM to step up Red Sea journeys as Houthi tensions ease.” Financial Times, December 10. link
