Weekly Updates on International Politics: Civitas One Magazine

Vol. 1, Issue 5 — Week of August 24, 2025

I. Ukraine Peace at Stake: Western Support Intensifies

On August 18, 2025, President Donald Trump hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and eight European leaders at the White House to discuss postwar security arrangements for Ukraine. This summit followed a recent meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, which had left European allies concerned about the U.S. commitment to Ukraine's defense. The Washington meeting was framed as a show of solidarity, with leaders emphasizing the need for security guarantees akin to NATO’s Article 5, despite Ukraine not being a NATO member. 

While the specifics of these guarantees remain under negotiation, European leaders have committed to providing the majority of the military forces, with the U.S. potentially offering air support and logistical assistance. However, the effectiveness of such commitments depends on Ukraine’s full participation and the clarity of enforcement mechanisms. Additionally, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has dismissed the possibility of a summit between Presidents Putin and Zelenskyy without pre-agreed conditions favorable to Russia, complicating efforts toward a diplomatic resolution.

Implications:

• Security guarantees may deter further aggression but must include Ukraine’s input.

• U.S.–EU coordination could bolster international pressure on Russia.

II. U.S. Monetary Outlook: Powell Hints at Rate Cut

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 22, 2025, have significantly influenced financial markets. While he did not commit to an immediate rate cut, Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve may need to adjust its monetary policy in response to a softening labor market and persistent inflation risks. This dovish stance has led to heightened expectations of a rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, with market pricing indicating a 91% probability of a 25 basis point reduction .

Following Powell's speech, U.S. equity markets experienced a substantial rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged over 850 points, reaching a new record high, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also posted significant gains. Investor optimism was fueled by the prospect of lower interest rates, which are typically seen as supportive for economic growth and corporate earnings.

In the bond market, yields on U.S. Treasury securities declined as investors anticipated a more accommodative monetary policy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.25%, and the two-year yield dropped to 3.68% . Concurrently, the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies, reflecting expectations of lower interest rates and reduced demand for dollar-denominated assets.

Powell's cautious approach underscores the Federal Reserve's commitment to data-driven decision-making. He emphasized that future policy adjustments will depend on incoming economic data, particularly labor market indicators and inflation trends . This balanced perspective aims to maintain the Fed's credibility amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

Implications:

• Markets expect modest monetary easing soon.

• Fed credibility remains intact amid dual risks of inflation and slowdown.

III. Philippines and Australia Forge New Defense Pact amid Rising Maritime Tensions

The Philippines and Australia are set to finalize a comprehensive defense agreement in 2026 aimed at reinforcing security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. Announced on August 22, the pact includes more frequent joint military exercises and infrastructure investments across five strategic locations in the Philippines. The agreement forms part of the broader ALON naval drills, which involve Canadian forces and are intended to bolster deterrence in response to escalating Chinese maritime assertiveness, particularly in areas like the Second Thomas Shoal.

Simultaneously, global tensions took a diplomatic turn as China announced that President Xi Jinping will host a major regional summit in Tianjin (August 31–September 1), attended by over 20 heads of state, including Russia’s Putin and UN Secretary-General Guterres. The gathering aims to strengthen political and security cooperation under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization framework, emphasizing counterterrorism, renewable energy, and digital economic partnerships.

Implications:

• Enhanced regional deterrence: The Fiji-style pact strengthens strategic depth in the face of maritime pressures, especially around contested waters.

• Shaping Indo-Pacific alliances: The defense alignment between Australia and the Philippines signals a growing regional security architecture rooted in interoperability and shared threat perception.

• SCO summit sets stage: China’s hosting of the Tianjin summit indicates a push for influence consolidation via multilateralism, potentially counterbalancing Western alliances.

  
  

IV. Rohingya Children Vulnerable After School Closures

A catastrophic funding shortfall has crippled education in Rohingya refugee camps across Cox’s Bazar. UNICEF was forced to suspend operations at more than 4,500 learning centres, leaving over 227,500 children without access to schooling. Nearly 1,200 teachers—both Rohingya and host community members—lost their jobs, and written curriculum in English, science, and social studies was scrapped for younger students, replaced only by limited literacy, math, and life skills lessons.

The crisis runs deeper than classroom closures. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) reports that up to 500,000 children are now out of school. The closure wave emerged amid broader slashes in international funding, including a severe reduction in support from the U.S. and other donors.

Human Rights Watch highlights that these shutdowns have also exacerbated existing vulnerabilities: child marriage and child labor are rising by an estimated 3% and 7%, respectively—undercounts likely due to underreporting and stigma. The absence of protective institutions is fueling exploitation, with parents turning to “extreme survival strategies” in the absence of educational and economic options.

Community-based educational alternatives are now strained as well. Only a handful of schools led by Rohingya educators remain functional, but they lack formal recognition, adequate staffing, consistent funding, or certification—effectively limiting their ability to provide quality instruction or future mobility for students. Some promising interventions offer limited relief. UNFPA and the Republic of Korea launched nonformal "life skills" centers serving 80,000 adolescent girls and women, aiming to reduce early marriage risks and provide psychosocial support. Yet these programs, while vital, remain a drop in an ocean of need.

Implications:

• Education is a lifeline: Schooling isn't a luxury—it's a vital protective mechanism that offers structure, hope, and a buffer against exploitation.

• Generational damage: With formal learning suspended, many children risk losing foundational skills and social safeguards, pushing them into exploitative labor, early marriage, or worse.

• Urgent funding need: Restoring education services must be a humanitarian priority. Without reliable donor commitments, these children are at unprecedented risk.

V. Global Markets Rally on Powell’s Dovish Pivot

Global equity markets surged this week following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Powell signaled a potential interest-rate cut as early as September, citing rising risks to labor markets. This dovish tilt sparked a broad rally: the Dow Jones leapt 836 points (1.9%), the S&P 500 rose 1.5%, and the Nasdaq gained 2%.

Yields in the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.26%, reinforcing optimism around easing monetary policy. Defensive sectors like homebuilding and travel, along with Chinese EV maker Nio (up 15.5%), led gains.

Meanwhile, Asian markets showed resilience; Indian stock benchmarks paused their six-session advance due to renewed tariff concerns and a shift in rate-cut expectations. Investors scaled back exposure to securities perceived as vulnerable to geopolitical policy shifts.

Implications:

• Central bank communications are pivotal in shaping market sentiment.

• Rate cut expectations are fueling powerful rallies in equities and bond rallies.

• Emerging markets remain sensitive to U.S. policy shifts and global trade volatility.

Thematic Summary

Theme	Key Development
Ukraine Security	Strengthened assurances could deter further conflict
Monetary Stability	Powell’s nuanced stance fuels cautious optimism
Regional Security	The Philippines and Australia finalize a defense pact with joint exercises and infrastructure investments to counter rising Chinese maritime assertiveness.
Child Protection	Rohingya school closures endanger vulnerable youth
Market Resilience	Global assets rise on policy signals, mindful of looming uncertainties

Sources:

Ukraine Security

• Reuters. 2025. “European Leaders Arrive at White House in Show of Support for Kyiv.” Reuters, August 18.

• Reuters. 2025. “Ukraine Summit as It Happened: Trump Says He’s Arranging a Putin-Zelenskiy Meeting.” Reuters, August 18.

U.S. Monetary Policy

• AP News. 2025. “Wall Street Rallies and the Dow Soars 800 Points on Hopes for Lower Interest Rates.” AP News, August 22, 2025.

• Economic Times. 2025. “BSE Sensex Today Live, Nifty Stock Market Updates 22 August 2025.” Economic Times, August 22, 2025.

• Investors.com. 2025. “Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Jackson Hole Speech SP 500.” Investors.com, August 22, 2025.

• MarketWatch. 2025. “The Stock Market Is Surging Following Fed Chair Powell’s Speech: Why It Might Just Be a Late Summer Rally.” MarketWatch, August 22, 2025.

• Reuters. 2025. “Powell’s Jackson Hole Address Fires up Markets with Dovish Tilt.” Reuters, August 22, 2025.

• The Guardian. 2025. “Wall Street Jumps after US Fed’s Powell Signals Possible Rate Cut - As It Happened.” The Guardian, August 22, 2025.

Philippines/Australia Defense Pact

• Reuters. 2025. “Philippines, Australia to Seal New Defence Pact as China Tensions Rise.” Reuters, August 22, 2025.

• Reuters. 2025. “China’s Xi to Host Putin, UN’s Guterres at Regional Summit.” Reuters, August 22, 2025.

Rohingya Education Closure

• Reuters. 2025. “School Closures Push Rohingya Refugee Children into Marriage and Work.” Reuters, August 22, 2025.

• AP News. 2025. “Famine Grips Gaza’s Largest City, Authority on Food Crises Says.” AP News, August 22, 2025.

• International Rescue Committee. 2025. “Half a Million Rohingya Children Left without Schooling in Bangladesh, as Foreign Aid Freeze Forces Closure of Learning Centers.” IRC Press Release, July 14, 2025.

• Save the Children. 2025. “About 300,000 Children Risk Losing Education as Learning Centres in Rohingya Camps Shut Due to Funding Cuts.” Save the Children Press Release, June 2025.

• UNICEF. 2025. “The Education of Almost a Quarter Million Rohingya Refugee Children at Risk – UNICEF Calls for Urgent Funding.” UNICEF Press Release, June 1, 2025.

• UNFPA. 2025. “Korean-Funded UNFPA Project Reaches 80,000 Rohingya Girls and Women to Combat Child Marriage.” UNFPA Press Release, April 2025.

Markets & Geopolitics

• AP News. 2025. “Wall Street Rallies and the Dow Soars 836 Points on Hope for Fed Rate Cuts.” Associated Press, August 22, 2025.

• Reuters. 2025. “Investors See Risks for Market as Powell Walks Tightrope at Jackson Hole.” Reuters, August 21, 2025.

• Reuters. 2025. “IT, Financials Drag Indian Equity Benchmarks, Pausing Six-Session Rally.” Reuters, August 22, 2025.