Weekly Updates on International Politics: Civitas One Magazine
- Civitas One Team
- Sep 14
- 7 min read
Vol. 1, Issue 8 — Week of September 14, 2025
I. U.S. Pushes EU Tariffs on Russia Oil Buyers After Qatar Attack
Following an Israeli strike reportedly targeting Hamas leadership based in Qatar, the United States has urged the European Union to impose 100 percent tariffs on purchases of Russian oil, with particular focus on major importers such as China and India. The U.S. move signals a heightened effort to pressure Moscow amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, seeking to limit Russia’s oil revenue streams while reinforcing Western sanctions.
Oil markets responded with modest price increases following the announcement, reflecting investor concern over potential disruptions and broader geopolitical instability. However, gains were limited as underlying worries about persistent inflation, slowing global economic growth, and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks continued to weigh on market sentiment. Analysts noted that while the threat of heightened tariffs could tighten supply in key markets, traders remained cautious, balancing geopolitical risks against macroeconomic headwinds and demand uncertainty.
Implications:
Aggressive tariff policy may escalate trade tensions with major energy consumers.
Pressure on Russian oil export routes could shift global energy supply dynamics.
Inflationary risk increases if energy costs rise, complicating central bank decisions.
II. Nepal’s Gen Z Uprising Forces Political Reset
Nepal has been engulfed in a wave of youth-led unrest, with Gen Z activists at the forefront after the government imposed a sweeping social media ban and advanced policies widely seen as corrupt and elitist. The situation escalated dramatically on September 8, when security forces opened fire on demonstrators outside Kathmandu’s parliament building. At least 19 people were killed and more than 100 injured, with hospitals reporting several in critical condition from live ammunition, rubber bullets, and heavy use of tear gas. The crackdown drew sharp domestic and international criticism. Most major platforms, including Facebook, YouTube, and X, were blocked after refusing to register under a controversial new regulatory framework, though authorities later lifted the ban amid mounting public pressure. The government also pledged compensation to victims’ families and free medical treatment for the injured in an attempt to ease tensions.
The political fallout was swift. Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli resigned under heavy pressure, while President Ramchandra Paudel dissolved parliament and appointed Sushila Karki, a former Chief Justice, as Nepal’s first female interim prime minister. National elections have been scheduled for March 5, 2026, as the country navigates a volatile transition. While relative calm has returned to Kathmandu, curfews remain in place in several districts, and military patrols continue to enforce order. Protest leaders, however, remain defiant, calling for deeper systemic reforms, an end to entrenched elite politics, and greater accountability from those in power.
Implications:
Nepal may enter a period of political instability but also of potential reform if the interim leadership meets public demands.
The protests mark a generational shift, with youth activism now central to Nepalese politics.
Economic disruptions and trade losses during unrest risk deepening hardship for an already vulnerable population and may test international support.s.
III. France Faces Social Unrest Amid Spending Cut Proposals
On September 10, 2025, France was engulfed in nationwide unrest as the "Block Everything" movement mobilized against austerity measures proposed by the government. The protests, which began as a grassroots response to the government's proposed €44 billion spending cuts, quickly gained momentum, drawing participants from various political backgrounds. Demonstrators blocked highways, set up barricades, and clashed with police, leading to widespread disruptions across the country. In Paris, nearly 200 people were arrested, and over 80,000 security personnel were deployed nationwide to manage the situation.
The protests coincided with the appointment of Sébastien Lecornu as France's new prime minister, following the resignation of his predecessor, François Bayrou, who faced a no-confidence vote over the proposed budget cuts. Lecornu, a close ally of President Emmanuel Macron, assumed office on the same day as the protests, intensifying public dissatisfaction. In response to the unrest, Lecornu announced the abandonment of plans to reduce two public holidays, acknowledging the unpopularity of such measures and the need for alternative solutions to address the budget deficit.
The "Block Everything" movement, or "Bloquons Tout," emerged from social media platforms and quickly garnered support from various political factions, including left-wing groups and labor unions. Participants expressed frustration with the government's handling of public finances and perceived elitism, leading to widespread participation in the protests. The movement's success in mobilizing such a large number of individuals highlighted the deep-seated discontent among the French populace regarding austerity measures and the political establishment.
As the situation unfolded, Lecornu faced significant challenges in navigating the political landscape. The protests underscored the difficulty of implementing austerity measures in a politically fragmented environment, with opposition parties and unions expressing strong resistance. The government's inability to pass the proposed budget led to a downgrade of France's sovereign credit rating by Fitch Ratings, citing political instability and concerns over deficit reduction capabilities.
In the aftermath of the protests, Lecornu initiated consultations with political parties and labor unions to seek a consensus on a revised budget proposal. While some progress was made, significant divisions remained, particularly with left-wing factions and the Socialist Party, who remained hesitant to compromise. The ongoing political instability and public dissatisfaction posed a formidable challenge to Lecornu's leadership and the government's ability to stabilize the country's fiscal situation
Implications:
Budget austerity could face sustained resistance, challenging government stability.
Public sector spending cuts may exacerbate social inequalities.
The rise of broad social movements reflects deep political polarization.
IV. Global Markets React as Fed Rate Cut Odds Rise
Asian stock markets rose alongside U.S. equity indexes as investors increasingly priced in expectations that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at its September 17 meeting. Signals of a weakening U.S. labor market, including initial jobless claims rising to 263,000, the highest since October 2021, combined with inflation data showing a 0.4 percent increase in the August Consumer Price Index, contributed to the perception that monetary policy could soon ease. Major Asian benchmarks reflected this optimism: Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.3 percent, South Korea’s KOSPI rose 1.3 percent, Taiwan’s Taiex advanced 1 percent, and China’s CSI 300 recorded a modest 0.2 percent increase. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year rising to 4.093 percent, while gold prices inched upward as investors weighed potential Fed action against global economic uncertainty. Currencies were mixed, reflecting both safe-haven flows into the dollar and renewed demand for Asian exports amid shifting trade expectations.
Global market reactions illustrated the delicate balance between optimism over potential Fed rate cuts and broader economic concerns. Analysts highlighted that persistent inflationary pressures, slowing consumer demand, and ongoing supply chain disruptions could temper enthusiasm even as equities climbed. The anticipated 25 to 50 basis point Fed reduction is expected to ease borrowing costs and potentially boost corporate earnings, reinforcing equity markets. Meanwhile, gold maintained elevated levels, signaling investor caution, and bond markets reflected recalibrated expectations for U.S. interest rates. As the September Fed meeting approaches, market participants will closely monitor labor market reports, inflation indicators, and central bank communications, all of which will likely shape global financial trends in the near term
Implications:
Growing rate-cut expectations could boost risk assets in the short term.
Bond yields rising may signal market concerns about inflation and fiscal deficits.
Caution remains ahead of key inflation data and central bank actions.
V. Oil Gains After Geopolitical Shocks, But Market Weakness Limits Upside
Oil markets experienced a modest uptick following recent geopolitical developments, including an Israeli military strike on Hamas leadership in Qatar and U.S. President Donald Trump's call for the European Union to impose up to 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil, particularly China and India. These events initially spurred a nearly 2% rise in Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures. Brent crude settled at $67.49 per barrel, while WTI closed at $63.67, marking a 1.7% increase for both benchmarks.
However, the gains were tempered by underlying market factors. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported rising crude inventories and anticipated increased output from OPEC+, suggesting a potential oversupply in the coming months. Additionally, concerns over softening U.S. demand and broader oversupply risks offset the geopolitical tensions, leading to a 2% decline in oil prices the following day. Despite these challenges, expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut provided some support to oil prices, as lower rates could stimulate economic activity and, consequently, oil demand.
Implications:
Energy markets remain sensitive to geopolitical risk and policy shifts.
Oversupply concerns may constrain long-term price strength.
Oil price volatility could further complicate inflation control efforts globally.
Thematic Summary
Theme | Key Development |
Energy & Trade Pressure | U.S. pushes tariffs on Russian oil buyers, shaping energy geopolitics |
Generational Uprising in Nepal | Youth-led protests forced the resignation of Nepal’s prime minister and ushered in the country’s first female interim leader, underscoring the power of Gen Z activism in reshaping politics |
Social Unrest & Austerity | France becomes flashpoint over spending cuts and public dissent |
Monetary Policy Uncertainty | Markets gear up for Fed moves amid inflation risks and labor data |
Market Sentiment & Oil | Geopolitical shocks push oil higher, but structural market headwinds persist |
Sources:
Tariffs & Qatar Attack
Reuters. 2025. “Oil Prices Rise After Israeli Attack on Qatar, Trump’s Russia Tariff Push.” Reuters, September 10, 2025. Link
Reuters. 2025. “Trump Urges EU to Impose 100 % Tariffs on China, India to Pressure Putin, Sources Say.” Reuters, September 10, 2025. Link
Nepal Government Reformation
AP News. 2025. “Nepal Has First Woman Prime Minister as President Dissolves Parliament and Sets March Elections.” AP News, September 12. Link
Human Rights Watch. 2025. “Nepal: Protesters Demand Integrity, Rights, Rule of Law.” Human Rights Watch, September 12. Link
The Guardian. 2025. “Nepal Appoints First Female PM After Historic Week of Deadly Protests.” The Guardian, September 12. Link
Reuters. 2025. “Nepal Sets March Elections After Naming Interim Prime Minister.” Reuters, September 13. Link
Reuters. 2025. “Soldiers Patrol Nepal’s Capital After Two Days of Deadly Protests.” Reuters, September 10. Link
France Protests
Financial Times. 2025. “French debt downgrade piles pressure on Macron's new prime minister.” Financial Times, September 12. Link
Le Monde. 2025. “France’s new PM Lecornu faces immediate wall of mistrust.” Le Monde, September 12. Link
Reuters. 2025. “‘Block Everything’ Protests Sweep Across France, Scores Arrested.” Reuters, September 10, 2025. Link
The Guardian. 2025a. “Emmanuel Macron appoints his third prime minister in a year.” The Guardian, September 9. Link
The Guardian. 2025b. “New French PM Sébastien Lecornu promises ‘profound break’ with past politics.” The Guardian, September 10. Link
Market Reactions & Fed Cue
Bloomberg. 2025. “Wall Street Cheers Signs Fed-Rate Cut a Done Deal: Markets Wrap.” Bloomberg, September 10. Link
Reuters. 2025a. “StanChart expects Fed to cut rates by 50 bps in September after weak US jobs data.” Reuters, September 8. Link
Reuters. 2025. “Asia Stocks Gain, Bonds Fall as Traders Judge Odds of Bigger Fed Cut.” Reuters, September 10, 2025. Link
