G7 Forecast - A Press Briefing with CSIS

On June 9, the Civitas One team attended a CSIS Press Briefing: Previewing the G7 Summit. The briefing was hosted by: 

• Victor Cha - President, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department and Korea Chair 

• Philip Luck - Director, Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business 

• Max Bergmann - Director, Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program and Stuart Center 

• Will Todman - Chief of Staff, Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department; and Senior Fellow, Middle East Program

• Maria Snegovaya - Senior Fellow, Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program

The upcoming G7 Summit is set to be held in Evian-les-Bains, Haute-Savoie, France from June 15 to 17. 

The 2026 G7 Summit 

World leaders are preparing to gather in Evian, France, for the 2026 G7 Summit. The last calendar year has left the international community caught between regional warfare and a shifting global economy. This era of instability has created an unprecedented wave of challenges for the modern G7 leaders. A comprehensive preview hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies(CSIS) reveals an assembly gearing up for 72 hours of diplomatic strategy. 

Victor Cha describes an overarching theme of “back to the future.” The core priorities facing the G7 leaders today closely mirror the economic and energy policy the original ministers handled in the early 1970s. While the catalyst in 1973 was the historic oil shock, the contemporary destabilization stems from the active war in Iran and the consequential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The 2026 G7 Summit marks the first face-to-face assembly of global leaders, including the U.S., since the outbreak of major hostilities in Iran. 

G6+1

The baseline architectural friction of the summit is the volatile state of transatlantic relations. Trust between Washington and European capitals suffered a structural breach following the unconventional U.S. foreign policy endeavor to pursue Greenland as an American territory. Consequently, the French vision of European “strategic autonomy” came to fruition. Strategic autonomy refers to the capability of the European leaders to curate economic and security policies independent of both Washington and Beijing. Although French President Emmanuel Macron faces deep domestic unpopularity in his final year in office, he enters the summit having largely won the battle of Europe’s long-term geopolitical trajectory. Traditional allies are actively preparing for an international order defined by a weakening American security umbrella. 

There are collective concerns of President Trump departing the summit early, resulting in Macron anticipating a push for an issue-specific leaders’ statement excluding the U.S. This potential revival of a G6+1 framework, reminiscent of the 2017 climate tensions, underscores a growing consensus among traditional middle powers to forge institutional rules independently on critical domains like AI and digital regulations. 

The Ukrainian Leverage 

Maria Snegovaya offers a perspective on Ukraine. In contrast to previous political cycles, Ukraine enters the summit from a position of significantly enhanced leverage. On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces are reportedly gaining more territory than they are losing. The Kyiv delegation expects to cover an array of topics, primarily focusing on war diplomacy and air defense. In addition, it is likely to pressure allies for more financial and military aid. The G7 however, remains deeply fractured regarding post war architecture. The UK and France have organized a 15 country demining initiative to secure the Strait of Hormuz post conflict. In doing so, they are seeking U.S. buy in, however Washington has largely dismissed its utility. 

Adding to diplomatic complexities are reports of the potential attendance of Syrian President Sharaa. Seeking to restore sovereign legitimacy, the Syrian delegation is expected to pitch the country as an alternative logistical and transit hub capable of bypassing the volatile Strait of Hormuz. 

Disagreement over China 

Finally, the summit faces acute internal division regarding its collective economic posture toward China. European states, headed by consensus in Germany, are moving toward a significantly harder protectionist standpoint driven by domestic labor and manufacturing within German automotive sectors. The U.S. administration appears to preserve maximum unilateral decision space to protect its independent tariff and trade negotiations with Beijing. 

Sources:

• CSIS. 2026. Press Briefing: Previewing the G7 Summit. June 9. Link