The Atlantic Council: Senator Bernie Moreno on Colombia's 2026 elections - An Analytical Breakdown

On Wednesday May 25, The Civitas One Team attended the Atlantic Council’s virtual conversation with Adrian Arscht of the Latin America Center and  U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH) to discuss Colombia’s upcoming presidential election. As a Colombian born immigrant who rose to sit in the U.S. Senate, Moreno's insights offer a unique perspective. Moreno will soon be deployed as an international election observer.

Bernie Moreno via Maddie McGarvey New York Times

Security or “Faux Peace” 

At the heart of the analytical framework surrounding the 2026 election is what Moreno calls an uncompromising “binary” choice. Colombia is navigating an environment heavily marked by localized instability and targeted political violence. The final stretch of the campaign has been marred by tragedy, notably the recent assassination of a former mayor and his advisor. Both were linked to the campaign of candidate Abelardo De La Espirella. For observers like Moreno, this violence highlights an urgent need for robust, state initiated candidate security. This opens the door for potential U.S. diplomatic security assistance. 

However, the deeper ideological battle centers on how the next administration will confront organized crime and illegal armed groups, specifically the National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissidents of the FARC. The contemporary consensus among Washington officials is that these entities are no longer driven by the revolutionary leftist ideologies of fifty years ago. Instead, they function purely as international crime syndicates focused on drug trafficking, money laundering and territorial control. 

The election presents two vastly different paths for managing this threat. One path risks enabling these crime groups through a “faux peace” where negotiated settlements permit safe havens under the guise of political reconciliation. The alternative path demands an absolute, militarized crackdown on narcotics trafficking and transnational networks. The outcome will fundamentally decide whether Colombia retains its institutional resilience or falls victim to the criminal spillover. 

Venezuela and Cuba 

Colombia’s domestic security environment is indivisibly linked to the broader geopolitics of the Andean region and the Caribbean. This election takes place in the wake of major regional shifts, most notably a recent U.S. military intervention in Venezuela to remove Maduro and initiate a stabilization process. 

For years, the authoritarian axis of Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua relied on state sponsored criminality and illicit finances to strengthen influence across Latin America. With Venezuela currently undergoing a fragile transition expected to extend through late 2027, Colombia sits at a crossroads. If the incoming Colombian administration fails to secure its borders and aggressively combat armed groups, the regional criminal networks displaced from Venezuela risk establishing new strongholds in Colombian territory. 

Conversely, a security-minded government, working with reformist leaders could catalyze a long, overdue political and economic renaissance across Latin America. This shift coincides with a hardening U.S. toward the remaining authoritarian regimes. 

Rebuilding the Washington-Bogota Axis 

The strategic partnership between the U.S. and Colombia has experienced friction, highlighted by Washington’s desertification of Colombia over counternarcotics performance. Yet, the institutional foundations of the bilateral relationship remain resilient. Military-to-military cooperation has continued relentlessly. The future of U.S. legislative and financial assistance, however, remains contingent upon the incoming Colombian administration. An administration that aligns with U.S. strategic interests regarding counternarcotics and the mitigation of irregular migration will naturally see substantial congressional backing. This could include the resumption of formal state visits to Washington.

Sources:

• Atlantic Council. 2026 "Senator Bernie Moreno on Colombia's 2026 elections" May 20. Link